"Android adoption is literally about to explode," Google CEO Eric Schmidt said.

 

While some would expect him to say that, the surprising factor is that analysts at Gartner tend to agree. Gartner predicts that Android, which currently runs on less than two percent of all smartphones, will power 18 percent of the global smartphone market in 2012.

 

That would be a strong enough performance to put Android second among global smartphone operating systems, behind Nokia's (News - Alert) Symbian. By almost any measure, that would be a stunning advance for an OS working on only a single phone model about a year ago.

 

"You have all the necessary conditions," Schmidt said.

 

Gartner analyst Ken Dulaney said the Blackberry will be used by 13.9 percent of smartphones, or about 73 million units sold. The iPhone (News - Alert) OS will be on 13.6 percent of smartphones, with 71.5 million units sold.

 

Based on sales of 525 million smartphones globally, Gartner estimates Symbian (News - Alert) will get 37.4 percent share; Android 18 percent; BlackBerry 13.9 percent; iPhone 13.6 percent; Windows Mobile nine percent; Maemo, 4.5 percent; Linus 2.1 percent and WebOS – from Palm – 1.4 percent share.

 

A year ago, there was only one Android device, the T-Mobile G-1. Today, Android is powering 12 devices in 26 countries with 32 carriers, and a new development deal with Verizon should help.

 

Separately, Generator Research predicts Apple iPhone will catch – and surpass – Nokia for the top spot in the global smartphone market within three years, perhaps a more shocking prediction.

 

The firm sees iPhone growth accelerating due to a combination of the rapid multiplication of apps and the price drop of $99 for the lowest-priced iPhone. Generator Research also predicts that Nokia will stumble and see its market share cut in half from 40 percent in 2008 to just 20 percent in 2013.

 

But BlackBerry and Palm shouldn't be counted out in a market showing more signs of volatility.

Nokia has yet to launch its new Symbian OS. Windows Mobile 7.0 comes out in early 2010.

 

At any rate, the Android-iPhone contrast likely will be important, pitting the "tight integration" model against the "open source" approach in a battle that may well hinge on user experience. Were Android up against nearly any other competitor, one might predict a certain victory.

 

But mobile user experience is quite tricky, and Apple will have advantages because of its meticulous attention to deal and ability to tightly control hardware and software.

 

Android will have to come at matters from the opposite perspective. Android devices will have different end user feel and experience. But that will be an advantage if customers with different interests and needs can be given devices optimized for those lead applications. But it necessarily will be messier.

 

Hardware-software integration, for example, will be an issue. On the other hand, that very challenge means Android should have an advantage in creating "custom" and application-specific end user experiences.

 

It's a good example of a weakness being a strength, in that, the weakness, as always is the case for “open” approaches, is that Google only makes the smartphone software, while companies like HTC (News - Alert) and Samsung build the actual phones.

 

That inevitably means some lowest common denominator approach, which can make those devices far less intuitive and usable than devices such as the Palm Pre, Apple iPhone and the various BlackBerry models where the hardware and software are tightly integrated.

 

But weakness can be great strength if hardware partners can optimize touch screens, scroll wheels, stylus, form factors, keypads, menus and so forth in ways that optimize experience for some lead apps.

 

In the past, BlackBerry has been optimized for email, iPhone for Web, Palm for contact management. Now we see Motorola's Cliq optimized for social networking and Pre for multitasking.

 

The great opportunity is for Android ecosystem partners to exploit niches in mobility experiences.